Charizard (Shadowless Holographic)

Charizard (Shadowless Holographic) comes out of Base1 Shadowless, which I've slotted into the modern era on Cardboard Assets.

Raw spot sits at $1,200 per the most recent PriceCharting loose comp. The last documented sale closed at $1,180 on 2026-05-02, so the market's ticked up $20.00 since. The trailing 90-day sample is 28 comps, which I'd call moderate.

PSA has graded 3,450 copies of this card. The Grade 10 rate is 6.1%, Grade 9 lands 66.1%. PSA 10 / PSA 9 spread is $6,500, with PSA 10 trading at roughly 4.2× the PSA 9 comp. That's a strong gem premium — Grade 10 demands a real price multiple over Grade 9.

Run those numbers through the optimizer and the verdict is GRADE at PSA. Expected value works out to $2,034, less raw, less fees, less shipping, gets to a net of $805 per card sent in. ROI is roughly +67% off the $1,200 raw cost. Most of that EV comes from Grade 9 — that's the bucket I'm effectively betting on when I send this in.

Risk worth flagging: pop counts grow. If grading volume jumps in the next 12 months and the population doubles, the gem-rate denominator gets larger and Grade 10 comps soften. Hard to call where this trends if a major influencer pushes a fresh round of submissions, or if a grader rolls out a service-tier promo that pulls in a wave of marginal copies. My read: the math holds at current pop counts. Watch the 12-month grading volume — that's the lever that reshapes this thesis.

Numbers above pull from PSA POP Report, recent eBay sold listings, and PriceCharting loose comps as of 2026-05-04. Coverage expands when our commercial pop-data partner integration completes.