Charizard (1st Edition Holographic)

Charizard (1st Edition Holographic) comes out of Base1 1Ed, which I've slotted into the WOTC Era era on Cardboard Assets. That basket has returned +34,276 pp relative to the S&P 500 Total Return across 14 tracked products, with a 24.0% CAGR against SPXTR's 8.7%. Total invested at retail across the era runs roughly $2,016; basket value today is $710,909. That number's a little misleading — 77% of basket value sits in the era's top 3 products, so generalizing the era return to any individual card requires care.

Raw spot sits at $5,500 per the most recent PriceCharting loose comp. The last documented sale closed at $5,200 on 2026-04-28, so the market's ticked up $300 since. The trailing 90-day sample is 12 comps, which I'd call moderate.

PSA has graded 2,920 copies of this card. The Grade 10 rate is 4.1%, Grade 9 lands 64.4%. PSA 10 / PSA 9 spread is $54,000, with PSA 10 trading at roughly 5.9× the PSA 9 comp. That's a strong gem premium — Grade 10 demands a real price multiple over Grade 9. CGC has 380 copies on file with a 1.1% Grade 10 rate.

Run those numbers through the optimizer and the verdict is GRADE at PSA. Expected value works out to $10,762, less raw, less fees, less shipping, gets to a net of $5,233 per card sent in. ROI is roughly +95% off the $5,500 raw cost. Most of that EV comes from Grade 9 — that's the bucket I'm effectively betting on when I send this in.

Risk worth flagging: pop counts grow. If grading volume jumps in the next 12 months and the population doubles, the gem-rate denominator gets larger and Grade 10 comps soften. Hard to call where this trends if a major influencer pushes a fresh round of submissions, or if a grader rolls out a service-tier promo that pulls in a wave of marginal copies. My read: the math holds at current pop counts. Watch the 12-month grading volume — that's the lever that reshapes this thesis.

Bigger picture: the era basket I'm benchmarking against is dollar-cost-averaged at MSRP across 14 sealed products as they released, then compared head-to-head against the same dollars dropped into the S&P 500 Total Return on the same dates. That's the honest baseline — not a lump-sum-at-inception comparison, which would flatter the cardboard side. Even so, this card's era ran a 24.0% CAGR. Numbers above pull from PSA POP Report, recent eBay sold listings, and PriceCharting loose comps as of 2026-05-04. Coverage expands when our commercial pop-data partner integration completes.