Wrenn and Six

Wrenn and Six comes out of Modern Horizons, which I've slotted into the Single-Set Era era on Cardboard Assets. That basket has returned −75 pp relative to the S&P 500 Total Return across 18 tracked products, with a 6.7% CAGR against SPXTR's 12.0%. Total invested at retail across the era runs roughly $2,160; basket value today is $3,595.

Raw spot sits at $22.52 per the most recent PriceCharting loose comp. The last documented sale closed at $22.00 on 2026-05-03, so the market's barely moved since. The trailing 90-day sample is 95 comps, which I'd call robust.

PSA has graded 1,380 copies of this card. The Grade 10 rate is 27.5%, Grade 9 lands 59.4%. PSA 10 / PSA 9 spread is $180, with PSA 10 trading at roughly 2.3× the PSA 9 comp. That's a meaningful but compressed gem premium. CGC has 680 copies on file with a 20.6% Grade 10 rate.

Run those numbers through the optimizer and the verdict is GRADE at PSA. Expected value works out to $182, less raw, less fees, less shipping, gets to a net of $130 per card sent in. ROI is roughly +578% off the $22.52 raw cost. Most of that EV comes from Grade 10 — that's the bucket I'm effectively betting on when I send this in.

Risk worth flagging: pop counts grow. If grading volume jumps in the next 12 months and the population doubles, the gem-rate denominator gets larger and Grade 10 comps soften. Hard to call where this trends if a major influencer pushes a fresh round of submissions, or if a grader rolls out a service-tier promo that pulls in a wave of marginal copies. My read: the math holds at current pop counts. Watch the 12-month grading volume — that's the lever that reshapes this thesis. For comparable exposure in the same era, look at Mox Opal, Force of Will. Both sit in the same rarity neighborhood and respond to similar collector dynamics.

Bigger picture: the era basket I'm benchmarking against is dollar-cost-averaged at MSRP across 18 sealed products as they released, then compared head-to-head against the same dollars dropped into the S&P 500 Total Return on the same dates. That's the honest baseline — not a lump-sum-at-inception comparison, which would flatter the cardboard side. Even so, this card's era ran a 6.7% CAGR. Numbers above pull from PSA POP Report, recent eBay sold listings, and PriceCharting loose comps as of 2026-05-04. Coverage expands when our commercial pop-data partner integration completes.